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Cynefin Framework

A sense-making framework that categorizes problems as Simple, Complicated, Complex, or Chaotic, each requiring a different decision approach.

When to Use

Use Cynefin when you are not sure which decision framework to use. It is a meta-framework that helps you understand the nature of your situation before choosing an approach. Simple problems need best practices, complicated ones need expert analysis, complex ones need experimentation, and chaotic ones need immediate action.

Steps

  1. 1

    Assess the domain

    Is the relationship between cause and effect obvious (Simple), knowable with analysis (Complicated), only visible in retrospect (Complex), or unknowable (Chaotic)?

  2. 2

    Match the approach

    Simple → apply best practices. Complicated → analyze, then act. Complex → probe with safe-to-fail experiments. Chaotic → act immediately to stabilize.

  3. 3

    Sense-Categorize-Respond (Simple)

    For simple problems, identify the situation, categorize it, and apply the known best practice.

  4. 4

    Sense-Analyze-Respond (Complicated)

    For complicated problems, bring in experts, analyze options, and choose the best approach.

  5. 5

    Probe-Sense-Respond (Complex)

    For complex problems, run experiments, observe what happens, and amplify what works.

Real-World Example

A healthcare CTO used Cynefin to triage their decision backlog. Server upgrades were Simple (follow the runbook). Choosing a new EMR vendor was Complicated (hire a consultant). Improving patient outcomes with AI was Complex (run small pilots). A ransomware attack was Chaotic (restore from backups immediately, analyze later).

Pros

  • Prevents applying the wrong framework to the wrong problem
  • Acknowledges that not all problems are solvable the same way
  • Helps leaders communicate why different situations need different approaches
  • Particularly valuable in enterprise and healthcare settings

Cons

  • Categorization can be subjective; people often disagree on domain
  • Abstract and doesn't give you concrete steps within each domain
  • Requires training to apply effectively

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